Safe Withdrawal Rate
The 4% Rule gets all the attention, but it’s just one answer to a bigger question — how much can you actually withdraw without running out of money?
What Is It
“Safe withdrawal rate” is the general concept behind the 4% Rule, not another name for it. It’s the percentage of your portfolio you withdraw in year one of retirement — the question every FIRE calculation has to answer, one way or another. 4% is the most famous answer, but it’s not the only one researchers have proposed.
Why It Matters
The “right” rate depends on factors the original studies had to assume away — how long your retirement lasts (a 60-year retirement needs a lower rate than a 30-year one), how your portfolio is split between stocks and bonds, and whether you use a fixed rate or a dynamic strategy that adjusts your spending based on how the market’s actually doing. That’s why you’ll see different numbers cited across the FIRE community: 3.5% for a more conservative, longer-horizon plan; 4% from the original Trinity Study; even 4.7% from Bengen’s own later research for well-diversified 30-year retirements.
Quick Example
On $1,000,000 saved, the difference between withdrawal rates adds up fast: 3.5% gives you $35,000/year, 4% gives you $40,000/year, 4.7% gives you $47,000/year — same nest egg, a $12,000/year swing depending purely on which rate you trust.
Try It Yourself
RetireSmart defaults to a more conservative 3.5% — test how that compares to running the numbers at 4% or higher for your own plan.
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Model your own retirement timeline against real market scenarios — test different withdrawal rates side by side.